What Childcare Tuition Really Tells Us About Demand

A Data Based Look at Tacoma, Washington

When people talk about childcare demand, the conversation usually stops at waitlists.

Waitlists matter, but they only tell part of the story. To really understand demand, you have to look at what families can afford, how many actually need care, and whether pricing is supported by the local population.

Tacoma is a good example of why this matters.

Tuition Is High Relative to Income

In Tacoma, full time childcare tuition averages roughly $1,400 per month, with infant care often closer to $1,700. That puts annual tuition in the $17,000 to $20,000 range per child.

The median household income in Tacoma is about $84,000.

That means a typical family is spending roughly 20 percent of their gross income on childcare for one child. For infants, that number can push closer to 25 percent.

For context, federal guidelines consider childcare affordable at around 7 percent of household income.

The takeaway is simple. Childcare demand in Tacoma is real, but it is already stretching family budgets.

Demand Is Driven by Working Parents

This is not a market where demand is optional.

Roughly 60 percent of children under age five in the Tacoma area live in households where all parents are working. Female labor participation among adults ages 25 to 44 is high, meaning most families need childcare in order to stay in the workforce.

Demand is primarily supported by local residents, not just commuters, though Tacoma does benefit from some inbound workers tied to healthcare, education, military, and port related jobs.

This is structural demand, not lifestyle demand.

Supply Is the Bigger Problem

Licensed childcare capacity in Pierce County covers only a fraction of the children who need care.

There are roughly two and a half children under age five for every licensed childcare slot. Infant slots are even more constrained.

This shortage explains why centers fill quickly and why waitlists persist even at high tuition levels.

It also explains why pricing continues to rise despite affordability concerns.

Childcare Costs Rival Housing Costs

One of the most telling comparisons is tuition relative to housing.

In Tacoma, average monthly rent is around $1,750. Monthly childcare tuition is roughly $1,400.

That means childcare costs are about 80 percent of housing costs for a typical family. For families with two young children, childcare often exceeds housing as the largest monthly expense.

This is where affordability limits start to show up. At some point, families opt out of formal care, reduce work hours, or rely on informal arrangements.

Where Tuition Is Constrained and Where It Is Not

In lower income neighborhoods, tuition is clearly capped by what families can afford. Providers in these areas often rely on subsidies, lower pricing, or thinner margins to stay full.

In higher income pockets of Tacoma and nearby submarkets, there is more room for pricing flexibility, especially for high quality or specialized programs. These areas can support higher tuition because incomes are higher and demand still exceeds supply.

This variation is why childcare should never be analyzed as a single citywide market. It is hyper local.

Why This Data Matters

Most childcare decisions are still made using partial information.

Tuition data is fragmented. Capacity data is incomplete. Real transaction comps are rare and opaque.

Without a shared way to measure affordability, supply pressure, and demand, owners and buyers are forced to rely on anecdotes.

This is exactly the gap The OFF MKT is designed to address.

By creating a platform where owners and buyers can engage, observe demand, and contribute data over time, the market becomes more transparent and decisions become more grounded.

Tacoma is just one example. The model works anywhere.

The First Step Is Understanding the Market

The first step is not selling. It is understanding how your market actually works.

By joining The OFF MKT, owners can engage quietly, see how buyers behave, and help build the data that leads to better pricing, better timing, and better outcomes for everyone.

When and if a transaction makes sense, Aaron Kraft of Kidder Mathews provides the structure and execution to turn that insight into a well run deal.

Join the platform. Learn the market. Engage and share what you’re seeing. Decide from a position of clarity.